Hey there, golf enthusiasts and DFS players! I've got some insights and predictions for the upcoming Waste Management Phoenix Open, an event that's sure to be a wild ride. But first, let's address my recent performance in PGA DFS. It's been a rough start to the year, with three consecutive weeks of losses. I'm hoping my colleagues, Sky and Sam, have capitalized on my struggles and built an early lead in our contributor contest. However, I'm confident that my win in the $200 SE is just around the corner!
Now, let's dive into the Waste Management Phoenix Open, also known as The People's Open. This tournament is a fan favorite, known for its lively and rowdy atmosphere. It's a unique event that goes head-to-head with the Super Bowl, so we can only hope for some exciting contests and not a bunch of duds.
Looking back at the Farmers Insurance tournament, it was a mixed bag for me. While it wasn't my worst performance, I still ended up down by 65%, which is not ideal. The lotto streets can be tough, but I believe my strategy of going all-in and aiming for first place is the key to success. Many DFS players try to compete with the pros using similar strategies, but I argue that differentiation is crucial. Your bankroll and goals should influence your lineup decisions; larger bankrolls can afford to play it safe, while smaller bankrolls might need to take more risks.
Let's analyze the winning lineup from the Farmers Insurance tournament. It featured a 9/9/8/7/7/7 build, which is typical for lineups that faded top players like Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, and Patrick Cantlay. The lineup also included Chris Gotterup, whom I had completely faded, but his inclusion highlights the unpredictability of golf. The winning lineup had an 86% cumulative ownership, which is a bit disappointing given the field size and the top prize. Congratulations to Jade and Tanner for their impressive 300-lineup strategy!
Moving on to the Waste Management Phoenix Open, it's an exciting event that serves as a pregame to the PGA Tour season. Held during Super Bowl weekend, this tournament is known for its party atmosphere and iconic stadium par 3 hole. With the return of Brooks Koepka, a two-time winner at this event, we're in for a treat. The tournament is hosted at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona, offering a relatively average test for the PGA Tour field.
Here's a look at the past five winners and their scores:
- 2025: Thomas Detry (-24) defeated Daniel Berger and Michael Kim by seven strokes.
- 2024: Nick Taylor (-21) won in a playoff against Charley Hoffman.
- 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19) defeated Nick Taylor by two strokes.
- 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16) won in a playoff against Patrick Cantlay.
- 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19) defeated Xander Schauffele and KH Lee by one stroke.
We can expect some solid scoring at this tournament, but it's unlikely to get out of hand. Last year, Detry's performance stood out, but the rest of the field was more in line with the average. While Scottie Scheffler could dominate again, golf is an unpredictable sport, so anything can happen.
Our friends at DraftKings are offering a $200K-to-first lotto, which is a great way to kick off the year. I anticipate even bigger contests as we approach The Players and The Masters. With the normal lotto field size and a 120-player field in the actual event, we shouldn't need to worry too much about cumulative ownership. I prefer a long-term view and will aim for the 60-80% range, with some lineups in the 50s.
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